4/18/2024 0 Comments Lvl floor beam span table new york![]() The print was marginally softer than consensus and the krone is a touch weaker to start the European FX session. Norway released CPI figures for December this morning, showing headline inflation remained unchanged at 4.8% while underlying inflation declined from 5.8% to 5.5%. Scandies: Norwegian underlying inflation declines further We expect the pair to consolidate in a 1.0880/1.1020 range in the coming days barring surprises on the US inflation side. The lack of market-moving data releases suggests EUR/USD should trade largely in line with global risk sentiment and US data this week. We could see some short-term benefits to the euro as hawks voice their inflation concerns, but those have proven to be neither sizeable nor long-lasting in the past months. Evidence of sticky inflation in the December report suggests she may favour a pushback against rate cut bets should she comment on monetary policy. She often voiced the consensus of ECB hawks, and surprised markets by ruling out more hikes and shifting the discussion to easing in early December. Today, there are two more doves speaking - Luis de Guindos and Pablo Hernandez de Cos - but we’ll keep a closer eye on an online Q&A held by Isabel Schnabel at 1400 GMT. The more hawkish-oriented Boris Vujcic had previously said that easing before the summer was unlikely. ![]() Yesterday, French Governing Council member Francois Villeroy reaffirmed that rates will be cut in 2024, after Mario Centeno said the first cut could come in the first half of the year. Our perception is that there still isn’t enough weakness in the jobs market to justify a cut in March and the Fed may want to favour some hawkish repricing in the USD curve.ĭXY should keep hovering around the 102.50 level until tomorrow’s inflation data unless Williams moves the market.ĮCB: Schnabel may protest dovish expectationsĮuropean Central Bank doves have given a nudge to the market’s dovish rate bets since the start of the week. The inconsistency between payrolls and the ISM services index makes the Fed's interpretation of the data particularly important. It will be more interesting to hear from New York Fed President John Williams in his speech about the 2024 economic outlook. Today, the US calendar is quiet, with only MBA application numbers in focus. Our view remains that a gradual repricing of Federal Reserve rate expectations to a later start of the easing cycle will keep risk assets on unstable ground in the near term, helping the dollar recover some ground before a clearer downtrend emerges. The dollar has been modestly supported, in particular against commodity currencies as equities had an uninspiring day yesterday. Markets are in wait-and-see mode ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI data, and currently lacking a clear sense of direction. It has been a quiet start to the week in FX.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |